Research Publications

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  Winning Hearts, Changing Minds: A Data-Driven Approach to Measure China's Influence in Latin America

  Narayani Sritharan and Jonathan A. Solis

  Between 2000 and 2021, China provided US$382.63 billion (constant 2021 US$) in development finance to Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). China’s expanding footprint in LAC through development finance poses strategic challenges to U.S. influence in the region. By coupling financial investments with public diplomacy efforts, Beijing has sought to improve its favorability among recipient countries, often bypassing the governance and transparency requirements typical of Western aid. This approach raises questions about the long-term implications for democratic governance and U.S. strategic interests. Yet, the extent to which this engagement influences recipient countries remains an open question.

  This paper argues that while greater China’s development financing will increase the public approval of Beijing’s leadership in LAC, this relationship is moderated by (1) domestic government approval, and (2) media freedom. Greater approval for a citizen-won government will bolster the positive relationship between China’s development funding and perceptions of China’s leadership. At the same time, respondents in more open and freer media environments where the media can criticize the government could diminish this positive effect. An ancillary analysis examines how switching diplomatic ties from Taipei to Beijing influences development financing from China in Panama, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, and Nicaragua.

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  Shadow Games: Russian Disinformation, Criminal Networks, and Strategic Encroachment in the Central Andes

  Joseph Bouchard

  This report examines Russia’s increasing influence in the Central Andes, specifically in Bolivia, Peru, and Ecuador, and highlights the adverse outcomes associated with this influence. Russia has significantly expanded its regional presence through security, diplomatic, and disinformation channels, taking advantage of geopolitical instability and economic vulnerabilities. Key developments include Russia’s involvement in Bolivia’s energy sector, particularly oil and lithium, mainly through its giant state-controlled companies Gazprom and Rosatom.

  Russian disinformation has also significantly amplified propaganda, mainly through Bolivia’s Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) government. It has also used media manipulation to limit dissent and silence opposition, using its leverage and connections to increase its gray zone footprint in the region. Although Russian influence is most pronounced in Bolivia, changing electoral and geopolitical dynamics in Peru and Ecuador could potentially contribute to expanding it in those two countries.

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  Tech Leap or Tech Lag: Latin America's Quest to Keep up with Emerging Technologies

  Juan Manuel Aguilar Antonio

  This paper analyzes how Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries adopt or develop emerging technologies (ET) such as artificial intelligence (AI), the Internet of Things (IoT), quantum computing, 5G networks, and cybersecurity. The region depends on imported technology and lacks internal development, which limits its ability to innovate and compete globally, thus preventing it from fully capitalizing on ETs economic opportunities.

  One of the key challenges identified is the significant disparity in ET investment compared to regions like North America, Europe, and Asia, where large-scale government and private sector initiatives drive technological innovation. Regional governments struggle to secure sufficient funding for research and development and lack clear regulatory frameworks that promote ET adoption and address ethical and security concerns.

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  Shadow Games: Russian Disinformation, Criminal Networks, and Strategic Encroachment in the Central Andes

  Joseph Bouchard

  This report examines Russia’s increasing influence in the Central Andes, specifically in Bolivia, Peru, and Ecuador, and highlights the adverse outcomes associated with this influence. Russia has significantly expanded its regional presence through security, diplomatic, and disinformation channels, taking advantage of geopolitical instability and economic vulnerabilities. Key developments include Russia’s involvement in Bolivia’s energy sector, particularly oil and lithium, mainly through its giant state-controlled companies Gazprom and Rosatom.

  Russian disinformation has also significantly amplified propaganda, mainly through Bolivia’s Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) government. It has also used media manipulation to limit dissent and silence opposition, using its leverage and connections to increase its gray zone footprint in the region. Although Russian influence is most pronounced in Bolivia, changing electoral and geopolitical dynamics in Peru and Ecuador could potentially contribute to expanding it in those two countries.

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  Trilateral Authoritarian Alliance: And the People's Republic of China

  Douglas Farah

  Over the past decade an alliance of authoritarian regimes has systematically built an interlocking series of echo chambers and media amplification nodes across Latin America for disinformation, misinformation and malign influence operations to undermine U.S. policy and actions in the hemisphere. The primary actors are Russian and Iranian state media and their regional allies of the Bolivarian alliance led by the Maduro regime in Venezuela.

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  From Fujian to Flushing: Chinese Criminal Networks in the Americas and Beyond

  Leland Lazarus, Myah Havertong, Javier Alvarez Kuan, and Nicole Writt

  This paper builds on the 2023 FIU report, providing even more of an in-depth analysis of Chinese criminal activities throughout the Western Hemisphere, including the United States and Canada. In this second volume, our team focused on who the groups and individuals are and how they carry out illicit activities. Partnering with the California-based law firm Enso Law, we conducted an extensive literature review, read dozens of news articles and think tank reports, reviewed California police records, and interviewed several current and former U.S. and international law enforcement agents, as well as a California-based Chinese-American community organization.

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  Russia's Energy Interests in the Central Andes: Bolivia, Peru, and Ecuador

  Joseph Bouchard

  This report examines the increasing energy influence of Russia in the Central Andes, namely in Bolivia, Peru, and Ecuador, and highlights the negative outcomes associated with this influence. In the last few years, Russia has significantly expanded its presence in the region through energy, taking advantage of geopolitical instability and economic vulnerabilities. Key developments include Russia’s involvement in Bolivia’s energy sector, particularly oil and lithium, particularly through its large state-controlled companies, Gazprom and Rosatom. Although Russian influence is most pronounced in Bolivia, changing electoral and geopolitical dynamics in Peru and Ecuador could potentially increase Russian influence in those two countries in the future.

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  How Russian Surveillance Tech is Reshaping Latin America

  Doug Farah

  Over the past decade, Russian-based companies have provided sophisticated surveillance technology to several Latin American countries. These technologies are critical to the survival of the repressive regimes in Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba, and possibly criminal nonstate actors that weaken democracy and threaten U.S. national security.

  The transfer of surveillance technologies and other cyber activities, often run by Russian intelligence officials directly tied to Russia’s state cyber structures, goes beyond traditionally understood gray zone activities. While these technologies empower the region’s most repressive regimes and criminal threat networks, they also give Russia access to key military, law enforcement, and financial data in multiple countries in the Western Hemisphere.

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  The New Silk Road in Science: China's Science Diplomacy in the Americas

  Adam Ratzlaff

  As U.S. policymakers’ concerns over Chinese influence in the Americas continue to grow, one area that deserves particular attention is Chinese engagement in science and technology. While it is sometimes considered outside the scope of traditional diplomacy, science and technology are increasingly important for economic development and encompass a large range of sectors that are critical to U.S., Chinese, and regional capabilities. These include defense, the green energy transition, and healthcare. Given the importance of these issues, it is unsurprising that China has sought to gain a foothold in this area.

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  Ransomware Gangs and Hacktivists: Cyber Threats to Governments in Latin America

  Juan Manuel Aguilar Antonio

  This report assesses ransomware gangs and hacktivists the main cybersecurity threat to Latin American governments. These groups employ advanced encryption and data exfiltration techniques, exploit software vulnerabilities, and use detection evasion methods. They are highly adaptable and capable of quickly modifying their tactics in response to new cyber defenses. They operate regionally, targeting objectives in multiple countries and sectors.

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  Fourth Transnational Criminal Wave: New Extra Regional Actors and Shifting Markets Transform Latin America’s Illicit Economies and Transnational Organized Crime Alliances

  Douglas Farah

  Transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) in Latin America are undergoing significant transformations, driven by new alliances with extra-regional actors and supported by ideologically flexible authoritarian governments. These changes pose serious threats to democratic governance, the rule of law, and U.S. strategic interests in the hemisphere. The emergence of new actors, markets, and products is causing fragmentation among traditional groups while consolidating criminal economies through alliances with entities such as the Italian 'Ndrangheta, Albanian trafficking clans, and Turkish crime syndicates. This paper examines the evolving transnational criminal ecosystem in Latin America, highlighting the creation of new markets and convergence centers for extra-regional actors. The diversification of criminal activities is leading to a volatile reordering of criminal economies and relationships among TCOs, with long-term strategic implications for the United States and its allies.

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  Artificial Intelligence and Cyber Power

  Joe Devanny

  The impact of artificial intelligence (AI) and cyber capabilities on contemporary statecraft is one of the most prominent topics in debates about the implications of emerging technologies for international security. The paper contributes to these debates by focusing on the institutional role of foreign ministries as governments seek to meet this challenge.

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  Threatening National Security or Bridging the Digital Divide? A Case Study of Huawei’s Expansion in Brazil

  Jin (Julie) Zeng

  China's significant digital presence in Latin America has surged in the past two decades despite ongoing tensions in the U.S.-China tech conflict and global efforts to curb Chinese tech firms. While Western media often highlights the risks associated with adopting Chinese technology, there's a notable gap in research regarding how policymakers in developing nations perceive and navigate the growing rivalry between the United States and China. Why have Chinese tech firms, particularly Huawei, become key providers of telecommunication equipment in Latin America despite geopolitical challenges?

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  When the Dragon Joins the Club—Chinese Engagement in Regional Organizations and Forums in the Americas

  Adam Ratzlaff

  As Chinese influence in the Americas expands, U.S. policymakers are increasingly concerned about its presence within regional organizations. Despite the focus on specific organizations, Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) boast a complex network of governance forums, offering numerous avenues for Chinese engagement. With over 30 regional organizations ranging from established forums like the Organization of American States to ad hoc groups, the LAC region presents a diverse landscape, with Chinese engagement strategy varying from pursuing economic advantages to shaping regional norms. While U.S. attention often centers on select organizations, a broader approach is necessary to prevent alienating LAC leaders and to enhance regional governance effectively.

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  Allies and Partners in Latin American and the Caribbean

  Leland Lazarus and Robert Furton

  Latin America and the Caribbean are expanding their global ties beyond U.S.-China competition, engaging with diverse partners like Canada, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and the European Union. These relationships span various sectors, from renewable energy investments by the EU to development projects funded by Taiwan and Japan in Central America. African nations are also enhancing trade, and South Korean investments, like a $4 billion lithium mine in Argentina, exemplify this growing international collaboration. This report catalogs LAC countries budding relations with countries in Africa, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and North America; and showcases the aid these countries are providing to the region.

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  Antarctica: Strategic Competition's Next Frozen Frontier

  Fabiana Sofia Perera

  Antarctica is the only demilitarized region in the world. Countries initially committed to its preservation as a region of peace to prevent conflict from the Cold War from spilling over to the most remote place on Earth. As the world again enters an era of competition among great powers, countries must renew their commitment to Antarctica as a region of peace. The first likely opportunity to reconsider what activities can occur will likely be in 2048, 30 years after the environmental protocol entered into force. Though the date is still 25 years removed, the events that will shape that discussion must take place now before it is too late.

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  China's Charm Offensive in Latin America and the Caribbean: A comprehensive Analysis of China's strategic Communication Strategy Across the Region [Part III: Image, Academia, and Technology]

  Pablo Baisotti

  This paper explores China’s public relations strategy in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) through diplomacy, promoting study networks, cooperation among academies, and establishing a significant number of Confucius Institutes. This is supported by a vast network of print, audiovisual and digital media owned by China or LAC groups. Yet, among the LAC population, knowledge of China is minimal. In sectors dedicated to research, politics, and the economy and finance, there is a slightly favorable image of China due to economic interest.

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  Triads, Snakeheads, and Flying Money: The Underworld of Chinese Criminal Networks in Latin America and the Caribbean

  Leland Lazarus and Alexander Gocso

  This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the Chinese individuals, gangs, and companies engaging in illicit activities in Latin America and the Caribbean. Our methodology was to research academic literature, news articles, press releases, official statements, and podcasts in Spanish, Portuguese, Mandarin and English, as well as conduct off-the-record interviews with U.S. and LAC intelligence and law enforcement officials to ascertain growing trends in Chinese criminal behavior in the region.

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  China’s Charm Offensive in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Comprehensive Analysis of China’s Strategic Communication Strategy Across the Region [Part II: Influencing the Media]

  Pablo Baisotti

  This report will analyze China’s communication strategy in LAC through the action of the Chinese media and its foreign media networks as a tool to influence LAC in favor of the CCP’s ideological objectives. It will also seek to understand the functioning of the vast network of print, audiovisual, and digital media owned by the Chinese government and LAC groups that serve the purpose of the Chinese regime. News outlets such as the Xinhua News Agency, the People’s Daily, China Radio International, China Central Television (CCTV), CGTN Español, and China Today are strategic and geopolitical tools that seek to repeat, amplify, and consolidate the authoritarian power of Xi. In addition, it is crucial to understand the direct action of representatives of the Chinese government to marginalize critical information through direct and indirect pressure. It will also study how China tries to transmit a positive image through campaigns in all possible media, incorporating LAC journalists, academics, politicians, and all those who can promote its image and narrative.

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  China's Charm Offensive in Latin America and the Caribbean: A comprehensive Analysis of China's Strategic Communication Strategy Across the Region [Part I: Propaganda and Politics]

  Pablo Baisotti

  This paper analyzes the expansion of Chinese media and public diplomacy in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Through its “discourse of power” and an attempt to extend its soft power across the continent, Chinese and some LAC media (print, audiovisual, and digital) sustained, amplified, and exalted the “achievements” of the Communist regime and the possibility of sharing them as a “community of common destiny” for all the world’s peoples. China strives to promote a positive image through communication and propaganda campaigns, incorporating LAC journalists, academics, politicians, and others who can improve its image as a reliable and supportive partner of the “Global South.”

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  Regional Migration Governance in the Americas: The Los Angeles Declaration on Protection and Migration's Challenges and Opportunities

  Betilde Muñoz-Pogossian and Diego Chaves-González

  As the LA Declaration enters a new phase of maturation, it is imperative for the hemisphere to intensify efforts to overcome coordination and communication challenges among countries and levels of government. Addressing existing barriers, such as securing sustainable funding among others, is essential for countries and agencies to tackle specific migration challenges effectively. Additionally, regional policymakers must prioritize investments in migration to achieve broader societal objectives in the medium and long term

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  Red Flags Among Golden Passports: An Analysis of Chinese Influence In Five Caribbean Citizenship By Investment Programs

  Leland Lazarus

  This paper explores the extent wealthy Chinese Citizenship by Investment (CBI) holders in the Caribbean use their economic clout to influence local politics. Five Caribbean countries have benefited immensely from CBI, a program that contributes as much as a third of some countries’ gross domestic product (GDP). In recent years, a growing number of wealthy individuals from China have been applying for CBI in the Caribbean. As wealthy Chinese individuals continue to move their money and citizenship to the Caribbean, their political clout may increase in the future, and the Chinese central government may be able to leverage this influential community to exert economic and political pressure in the Caribbean.

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  The Impact of War in Ukraine on Latin America and the Caribbean

  David J. Kramer, Vladimir Rouvinski, and Andrei Serbin Pont

  Russia ́s invasion of Ukraine caused a shockwave that left no region in the world untouched as international surprise led to various reactions by national governments of different political and ideological inclinations. As such, Latin America and the Caribbean was no exception. The region has been fertile terrain for Russian diplomatic and military engagement over the last two decades, and several countries have found Russia a credible partner and supplier of a wide range of goods and services. This collection of short essays analyses how the conflict created challenges as well as potential opportunities in the region.

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  Making the Grade: What's Motivating China's Educational Outreach in LAC?

  Margaret Myers and Brian Fonseca

  This paper considers the multiple motivations for China’s educational outreach in the region, drawing from Chinese policy and analysis and many dozens of examples of academic linkages forged between China and Latin America and the Caribbean in recent years. Whether initiated by Chinese or LAC institutions, these programs are an increasingly central feature of China-LAC relations, a part of the extension of China’s BRI to LAC, and a useful measure of China’s varied and evolving interests throughout the region.

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  China's Investments and Land Use in Latin America

  Monica Nunez Salas

  Increased demand by China for commodities has impacted natural resources and local people in Latin America, at a time when climate change has created an urgency for sustainable practices. This report aims to contribute to a nuanced view of Chinese major investments and trade, analyzing the soy, copper, and beef industries. In many cases, it shows how unsustainability is not the result of the practices of Chinese companies but rather the nature of the resource, local legal frameworks, or global industry standards. Latin American countries must devise development plans for these industries and not rely solely on voluntary sustainability standards adopted by the private sector to preserve Latin America's vulnerable ecosystems in light of climate change.