Research Publications

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  Fishing for Security

  Daniel Schaeffer

  Often viewed through a myopic lens as an environmental issue or one relegated to fisheries authorities, illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing affects all coastal nations in the Western Hemisphere and has national security implications on the United States. A regional problem requires a regional solution and greater cooperation across agencies, private industry, and governments. Actions to address IUU fishing in Latin America have the potential to achieve greater aims of maritime security in the region. The report will frame the problem of IUU fishing by first highlighting its overall impacts globally and regionally. Food security, employment, national revenue, and other illicit activities are discussed. The report concludes with recommendations for interagency and regional coordination.

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  China's COVID-19 Diplomacy in Latin America and the Caribbean: Motivations and Methods

  Margaret Myers

  This report considers China’s varied interests, whether humanitarian, commercial, or political, when engaging with Latin America and the Caribbean during the COVID-19 pandemic. Through a review of international media coverage and Chinese embassy reports, it provides observations on the nature of Chinese personal protective equipment (PPE) and vaccine-related outreach over the past year, and of trends in Chinese messaging in social and traditional media in the region.

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  Environmental Explanations of Central American Migration: Challenges and Policy Recommendations

  Betilde Muñoz-Pogossian and Diego Chaves-González

  In this report, the authors argue that when countries and relevant stakeholders do not prioritize disaster preparedness and foster community resilience, extreme climate events can deplete people’s material and socioeconomic well-being. This results in internal displacement as people seek economic opportunities and social protection, which may exacerbate conflict and social tension in the cities they move to. Ultimately, this helps explain one unexamined consideration driving migration to the United States from the Northern Triangle countries.

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  Militarism and the Militarization of Public Security in Latin America and the Caribbean

  Carlos Solar

  While the effects of militarism and militarization toward security are evident in the Americas, most notably transmitted via images of soldiers complementing and replacing law enforcement agencies at times of social crisis, this report seeks potential answers to what this means in theory and practice. The author does this in two ways. First, it unpacks an up-to-date understanding of militarism and militarization aiming to feed academic and policy debates with a perspective on what citizens in Latin America and the Caribbean think. Second, it expands knowledge of militarism and militarization informing security and defense planners, specifically those preparing tailored policies toward conflict and peace in the region.

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  The Return of Geopolitics: Latin America and the Caribbean in an Era of Strategic Competition

  Hal Brands and Ryan C. Berg

  With the advent of the Biden administration, it is clear the idea of focusing U.S. foreign policy on strategic competition enjoys widespread bipartisan support. U.S. statecraft is increasingly directed at the threats posed by powerful state rivals—especially China—as opposed to Salafi-Jihadist extremists and other non-state actors. Yet geopolitical rivalry is not simply something that happens over there in the Indo-Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East. It also happens over here, within the Western Hemisphere. As the United States enters a new period of geopolitical rivalry, it must update its understanding of strategic denial to fit the facts on the ground. This paper offers an intellectual starting point for that endeavor. It is intended to help the U.S. national security community think through the imperative of strategic denial and hemispheric defense in the twenty-first century.

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  Hopelessness and Corruption: Overlooked Drivers of Migration from the Northern Triangle of Central America

  Joy Olson and Eric L. Olson

  This work briefly reviews the complex web of factors traditionally considered migration drivers. The authors’ interviews with migrants and their own work on anti-corruption efforts in Central America led them to hypothesize that something is missing from this traditional framework. Interviews with migrants in transit suggested that beyond any individual or combination of factors stood a profound lack of hope that the situation in their home country would improve.

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  Going Local: An Assessment of China's Administrative-Level Activity in Latin American and the Caribbean

  Margaret Myers

  Local-level engagement is becoming an increasingly central feature of the broader China- LAC relationship, as Chinese central government, quasi-governmental, provincial, commercial and other actors seek to engage more extensively in LAC markets, shape external views of China, and advance China’s various policy objectives and political interests, including vis-à-vis Taiwan. Though prompted by Chinese government policy, the nature of this engagement is exceedingly wide-ranging, however, featuring a complex cast of generally uncoordinated characters with distinct interests and approaches. The outcomes at the subnational are also distinct. Some local-level partnerships have been exceedingly productive, resulting in numerous commercial deals and other forms of cooperation. Others have yet to produce concrete results, despite many years of exchange.

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  Venezuelan Migration Crisis: Medium and Long-Term Impacts

  Betilde Muñoz-Pogossian and Paula García Tufró

  The recent debate on Venezuela has primarily focused on the promotion of a political transition to reestablish a functioning democracy, respect for human rights, and restore a viable economy. However, the discussion and resulting actions should also focus on the need to address the medium to long term regional effects of the Venezuelan migration crisis. The human dimensions of the country’s protracted political, economic, and humanitarian crisis have been daunting, with 4.5 million Venezuelan migrants and refugees having fled their homeland between 2015 and 2019. This massive exodus is having the greatest impact on Latin American and Caribbean countries. The burden appears likely to intensify, moreover, as the number of displaced Venezuelans is projected to reach 6.5 million Venezuelans by the end of 2020.

  This study focuses on how the exodus will impact the economic, social, security, and political standing of countries with the highest concentration of Venezuelan migrants—namely Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru.

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  The Evolution of Threat Networks in Latin America

  Dr. Phil Williams and Dr. Sandra Quincoses

  The economic and political environments in Latin America have been advantageous for local, regional, and transnational threat networks. Specifically, technology, increased international trade and economic interdependence, heightened interest in natural resources for profit, synthetic drug production, economic disparities, corruption, impunity, and unstable political conditions have led to a complex web of opportunities that requires new, progressive ways to address criminal activities. The creativity of threat networks along with their entrepreneurial strategies have resulted in increasing power and influence. Despite efforts by the United States and some governments in Latin America to combat these networks, the everchanging global environment has worked in their favor. Indeed, some countries in Central and South America are in danger of transforming into what Jorge Chabat described as “criminally possessed states.” Furthermore, gangs in Central America, especially in Honduras where MS-13 has become more closely linked to drug trafficking, have reduced local extortion, become more aware of their nascent political power and have even engaged in rudimentary social welfare provision.

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  Back In Power? Brazil's Military Under Bolsonaro

  Roberto Simon and Brian Winter

  It would not be an exaggeration to say that the 2018 election of Jair Bolsonaro represented the biggest shock to civil-military relations in Brazil in the last 40 years. Bolsonaro, a former Army captain who campaigned on a platform of dictatorship nostalgia amid the country’s worst-ever economic crisis, vowed to bring the generals back to the center of Brazilian politics. Indeed, the military today is exercising power not seen since Brazil concluded its decade-long “gradual transition” from dictatorship to democracy during the late 1970s and 1980s. Retired (and sometimes active-duty) senior military officers are now occupying several critical positions in the administration, including in policy areas outside the realm of defense and security – from Vice President Hamilton Mourão to ministries charged with energy, infrastructure and relations with Congress.

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  Are China and Russia on the Cyber Offensive in Latin America and the Caribbean?

  Brian Fonseca, Robert Morgus, Kiran Green, and Alexander Crowther

  Cyberspace—the newest domain of conflict—is among the most prominent forums of conflict in the twenty-first century. Increasingly nation-states utilize cyber and information capability in pursuit of foreign policy and national security objectives. This report focuses on two nation-states that are leading the charge in this respect: China and Russia.

  While Russia seeks to destabilize the global system for its own advantage, China’s goal is to maintain the current system and replace the United States as the global hegemon. To that end, China and Russia are pursuing robust cyber capabilities to advance their respective geopolitical, economic, and security interests. Moreover, Chinese and Russian state-run enterprises use tools ranging from cyber espionage to weaponizing information in an effort to undermine the efficacy of democracy and, in general, western interests around the world.

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  The Future of US-Colombia Relations

  Christopher Sabatini, Sofia Mateu-Gelabert, and Brian Fonseca

  Colombia has been one of the United States’ closest allies in the region, stretching back to the 1950s. Colombia was the only Latin American country to join the Korean War in a direct military role. In 1951, the first 1,000 Colombian soldiers disembarked in South Korea where they maintained a military presence until the end of the war. During the 1960s and 1970s, Colombia became one of the largest recipients of United States assistance in Latin America. The assistance was designed to enable Colombia to develop economically through industrialization, agrarian, and social reforms and helped solidify Colombian-U.S. military relations.1 Colombia’s support of the United States during the war and the U.S.’ economic support of Colombia during the 1960s and 1970s fostered a multi-faceted, long-lasting diplomatic and military relationship between the two countries that has evolved, but remained strong for over half a century.

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  The Digital Deciders

  Robert Morgus, Jocelyn Wollbright, and Justin Sherman

  Today, the global and open model for the internet is under pressure, and we risk drifting towards an internet that we do not want. Amidst a massive global dialogue about cyber norms we are losing sight of the forest in favor of individual trees. The ultimate prize is not individual norms about what should be attacked and by whom, but instead the norm that the internet should be a place that is global and open to the free flow of content, not narrowly sovereign and closed. The ultimate trajectory of this process will depend just as much, if not more, on domestic developments in a group of undecided states that we coin the "Digital Deciders."

  This report offers a data tool to help analyze these Digital Deciders and provides a background and context for this broad debate.

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  Culture and National Security in the Americas

  Brian Fonseca and Eduardo Gamarra

  With contributions from leading experts, Culture and National Security in the Americas examines the most influential historical, geographic, cultural, political, economic, and military considerations shaping national security policies throughout the Americas. In this volume, contributors explore the actors and institutions responsible for perpetuating security cultures over time and the changes and continuities in contemporary national security policies.

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  Drug Trafficking, Organized Crime, and Violence in the Americas Today

  Bruce M. Bagley and Jonathan D. Rosen

  In 1971, Richard Nixon declared a war on drugs. Despite foreign policy efforts and attempts to combat supply lines, the United States has been for decades, and remains today, the largest single consumer market for illicit drugs on the planet.This volume argues that the war on drugs has been ineffective at best and, at worst, has been highly detrimental to many countries. Leading experts in the fields of public health, political science, and national security analyze how U.S. policies have affected the internal dynamics of Mexico, Colombia, Bolivia, Peru, Brazil, Argentina, Central America, and the Caribbean islands. Together, they present a comprehensive overview of the major trends in drug trafficking and organized crime in the early twenty-first century.

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  Energy Security, Environmental Sustainability, and Development in Colombia

  Bruce M. Bagley and Jonathan D. Rosen

  This work examines energy security and environmental sustainability in Colombia. The chapter begins with an analysis of coal and petroleum production. The Colombian government has sought to increase infrastructure security by combating pipeline attacks by the various guerrilla forces operating in the country. This piece also analyzes natural gas and hydroelectric power in Colombia. In addition, the chapter examines some of the environmental challenges that the country faces. Research indicates that aerial campaigns to combat coca cultivation have had negative environmental consequences. The chapter concludes with an examination of several important factors that will continue to impact Colombian energy security.

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  Mexico-United States Migration: Security Implications

  Roberto Zepeda Martinez and Johnathan D. Rosen

  JGI Research Scientist Dr. Jonathan Rosen along with Mexican scholar Roberto Zepeda Martinez just released a newly published journal article titled "Mexico-United States Migration: Security Implications." This piece argues that in order to reduce migration levels, the US and Mexico must work together to regulate migration flows in order to meet the demands for labor force in the US while protecting against illicit movements.

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  The New US Security Agenda

  Brian Fonseca and Eduardo Gamarra

  War, nuclear weapons, and terrorism are all major threats to US security, but a new set of emerging threats are challenging the current threat response apparatus and our ability to come up with creative and effective solutions. This book considers new, 'non-traditional' security issues such as: transnational organized crime, immigration and border security, cybersecurity, countering violent extremism and terrorism, environmental and energy security, as well as the rise of external actors. The work examines the major challenges and trends in security and explores the policy responses of the U.S. government. By using international relations theory as an analytical approach, Fonseca and Rosen present how these security threats have evolved over time.

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  Fragile States in the Americas

  Jonathan Rosen and Hanna Kassab

  The Americas face many security challenges, including drug trafficking, organized crime, guerrilla movements, terrorism, and environmental challenges. Experts have long debated whether some countries in the region can be classified as failed states. While various states in the Americas have been labeled as failed states, calling a country a failed state is quite controversial and requires a precise definition of what constitutes a failed state. This book instead discusses fragile states in the Americas. Fragile states are weak states that are fertile grounds for organized crime groups and illegal actors as such groups are able to infiltrate the state apparatus through corruption. The goal of this book is to examine fragile states in the region and the major security challenges that these states face. The cause of state fragility is different for various states.

  Theoretically, the work will conceptualize the meaning of fragility as it relates to state survival and autonomy. Empirically, the book focuses on contemporary threats to the survival of fragile states in the Americas. The book explains and analyzes the main political, security, and economic challenges of these states. It employs a wide array of cases that delve into the security and economic threats and priorities of states in the Americas.

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  Why Raul Castro is happy Fidel is gone

  Brian Latell

  What will the newly liberated Raul Castro look like as a leader? He remains as poorly understood today as at any time in his more than 60 years in public life, in large part because he has existed in the shadow of his more charismatic brother. For decades there have been contradictory images of the dogmatic enforcer and the overly sensitive patsy, but the strongest clue as to what kind of leader Raul would be emerged when he took nominal control of the country after Fidel’s illness in 2006. It has been a challenging decade for Raul who often found that his boldest reform initiatives were undermined by his weakened but still meddlesome brother who demanded until the end fidelity to his decades-long revolution. But the economic and social pressures facing Cuba give Raul little choice except to make the dramatic changes that he has long wanted to enact.

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  History Will Absolve Me: Fidel Castro: Life and Legacy

  Brian Latell

  On trial in Santiago for leading a bloody assault on the city’s Moncada garrison, young revolutionary leader Fidel Castro uttered a phrase in court that would come to serve as a rallying cry for his 26th of July Movement and his regime thereafter: “History will absolve me.” Despite the fact that his methods resulted in great loss of life on both sides, Castro never wavered in his belief that in the final reckoning his life’s work would be vindicated—his violence necessary in bringing a new government to Cuba and a new political model to the developing world.

  For over fifty years, CIA analyst Brian Latell tracked Fidel Castro relentlessly—getting to know his habits, his fears, and the passions that drove him. In this book, the master spy steps from the shadows to paint a complex and nuanced portrait of the man he came to know better than any other intelligence target—revealing the mind and motivations of one of the most mercurial, passionate, and dominating leaders of the twentieth century.

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  The Key to Combating Cyber Insecurity: Changing Behavior, Training the Workforce

  Brian Fonseca

  Today, and for the foreseeable future, the individual remains the biggest cyber security liability to organizations. Technologies designed to protect organizational infrastructure have improved significantly over the years and helped defend against hacking and physical attacks to steal information. In this Miami Herald Article, JGI Director Brian Fonseca discusses the need to develop and train the next generation of cybersecurity experts to combat future threats, while ultimately changing the cyber culture in the United States.

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  US-Cuba Relations: Charting a New Path

  Jonathan Rosen and Hanna Kassab

  This book examines the history of United States foreign policy toward Cuba, focusing on critical junctures and recent strategic shifts. Restoring diplomatic relations with Cuba, which were severed officially in January 1961, was a huge shift in U.S. foreign policy. Relations between Cuba and the United States were tumultuous throughout the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, and almost escalated into full blown nuclear war in October 1962 during the Cuban missile crisis. The restoration of diplomatic relations marks a fundamental departure as the two countries chart a new course into the twenty-first century. This book traces over seven hundred years of history, setting the context to base an argument in favor of rapprochement. It illustrates the importance of the Cuba deal to break with the past and delegitimize anti-Americanism in the world.

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  Organized Crime, Drug Trafficking, and Violence in Mexico

  Jonathan D. Rosen and Roberto Zepeda

  Organized Crime, Drug Trafficking, and Violence in Mexico: The Transition from Felipe Calderón to Enrique Peña Nieto examines the major trends in organized crime and drug trafficking in Mexico. The book provides an exhaustive analysis of drug-related violence in the country. This work highlights the transition from the Felipe Calderón administration to the Enrique Peña Nieto government, focusing on differences and continuities in counternarcotics policies as well as other trends such as violence and drug trafficking.

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  Venezuelan Military Culture

  Brian Fonseca, John Polga-Hecimovich, and Harold A. Trinkunas

  The Venezuelan Armed Forces, known today as the Fuerza Armada Nacional Bolivariana (National Bolivarian Armed Force, FANB), have been key actors in Venezuelan politics and state building. The military, directly or indirectly, held political power in Venezuela through most of the nineteenth and first half of the twentieth centuries. Under President Chávez, active-duty and retired military officers assumed political and bureaucratic positions, occupying up to a third of cabinet portfolios, with the FANB becoming one of the principal facilitators of government programs and policy, clearly moving from a restricted domestic role to an active one. This report analyzes the historical evolution of the FANB, sources of military identity, the FANB, and the Venezuelan society.