Research Publications

FIU’s Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy was founded in 1985 to establish, promote, and advance the study of public policy and national security studies. The institute serves as the forefront of public policy discourse by leading, integrating, and delivering exceptional multidisciplinary education and research while improving the competitiveness and diversity of students and professionals entering the workforce. The institute is centered on four pillars: Academics, Executive Education, Research, and Community Outreach, each serving the mission of shaping public policy and national security solutions in the 21st century.

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An Analysis of Colombian Perceptions: Internal and External Actors and the Pursuit of Peace

Brian Fonseca, José Miguel Cruz, Eduardo Gamarra, Johnathan D. Rosen, Daniel Campos, and Randy Pestana

Florida International University’s Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy (JGI) and the Kimberly Green Latin American and Caribbean Center (LACC) conducted a study to understand Colombian perceptions towards internal and external actors and Colombia’s pursuit of peace. The study revolved around the analysis of 14 focus groups conducted in seven Colombian cities: Barranquilla, Bogotá, Cali, Cartagena, Cúcuta, Medellín, and Pasto. The results of these focus groups reflect the opinions and perceptions of those who participated in the study.
Cuban Military Culture

Frank Mora, Brian Fonseca, and Brian Latell

The Revolutionary Armed forces (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias—FAR) have traditionally been the most powerful official institution in Cuba and the central pillar sustaining the communist regime. Beginning with the stunning victory against an American sponsored exile invasion at the Bay of Pigs, the Cuban military became one of the best and most experienced fighting forces of any small nation. This report examines how traditional FAR culture has been characterized by exalted status, confidence, high morale, strict discipline, belief in the leadership of the Castro brothers, and an assertive nationalism antagonistic towards the United States. However, today, it is about a tenth of its previous maximum strength and faces an uncertain future.
Honduran Military Culture

Orlando J. Pérez and Randy Pestana

The Honduran Armed Forces have been closely linked to the political system since the state’s independence in 1838. The United States is responsible for the professionalization of the Honduran Armed Forces in the post WWII period. The role of the Honduran Armed Forces has shifted since its professionalization. No other military institution—or country for that matter—has had as close relations with the Honduran military than the United States. Increased military aid and training both professionalized and institutionalized the military. This report examines the historical evolution of the Honduran Armed Forces, sources of identity of the Honduran Armed Forces, and the Honduran Armed Forces and Society.
United States Policy in the Hemisphere: Influencing the State and Beyond

Frank Mora and Brian Fonseca

United States—Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) relations are strong, and more importantly, built on a broad base of sophisticated, organic relationships that extend well beyond state-to-state engagements. Furthermore, U.S.-LAC relations encompass far more than what is often covered in the commentariat—like the number of presidential visits, the emergence of extra-hemispheric actors, problems related to drugs and immigration, or when compared to the visibility of U.S. engagements in others parts of the world. These outdated measures fail to truly appreciate the complexity and depth of U.S.-LAC relations today, all of which are the result of our persistent and deliberate engagement with the Americas.
In Mexico It's Institutions, Stupid

Brian Fonseca

In this Huffington Post Article, JGI Director Brian Fonseca discusses the importance in strengthening institutions in Mexico
Running On Fumes: The Politics of Natural Gas in Bolivia

Marten Brienen

This article examines energy security in Bolivia during the Evo Morales administration, focusing on natural gas. The article begins by analyzing the Gas Wars and the consequences of such events. Despite the anti-imperialistic rhetoric, President Morales’ administration has implemented fairly conservative fiscal policies. This work focuses on the various challenges that Bolivia faces. Brienen argues that Bolivia will likely become a minor energy player in the regional market as opposed to an energy power house. It is also important to note that many social programs have been funded by the profits from natural gas. However, if more natural gas is not found, it could be possible that Bolivia could become “ungovernable.”
The Obama Doctrine in the Americas

Hanna S. Kassab and Johnathan D. Rosen

This volume examines the foreign policy transition from George W. Bush to Barack H. Obama in relation to the countries of the Americas. In this work, contributors consider the major defining features of their respective policies in dealing with security-related issues. Specifically, they examine whether major differences or continuities truly exist between the foreign policies of Bush and Obama, especially given the perception of American decline. The volume highlights Obama’s foreign policy in the Americas, focusing on issue areas that threaten international security, such as drug trafficking, organized crime, and terrorism. This work provides both theoretical and policy insights for academics and policy analysts interested in foreign affairs.
The United States and Colombia: From Security Partners to Global Partners in Peace

Dan Restrepo, Frank Mora, Brian Fonseca, and Johnathan Rosen

The article, published by the Center for American Progress, examines Colombia’s journey from near state failure to the brink of historic peace with assistance from the United States and the prospects for a stronger U.S.-Colombia partnership.
Toward a Modern Security Policy in the Western Hemisphere

Brian Fonseca and G. Alexander Crowther

Contemporary United States security policy towards the Western Hemisphere has yet to achieve the level of strategic sophistication seen during the Cold War. Instead, much of our security orientation in the region has centered on narrow-bore, specific policy interests, namely countering drugs and terrorism, neither of which have improved the overall security of our partners in the hemisphere. In the meantime, physical security in the region continues to deteriorate. Crime and violence are rampant and transnational criminal organizations, drug traffickers, and domestic insurgencies continue to operate with impunity in many countries in the Hemisphere.
La Guerra contra las Drogas y la Cooperación internacional: el caso de Colombia/ The Drug War and International Cooperation: The Case of Colombia

Jonathan Rosen and Roberto Zepeda

This article examines U.S. foreign policy towards Colombia with respect to drug trafficking. The analysis concentrates not only on the war on drugs in Colombia but also on the interests of the U.S. in this country and in the region as a whole. The position of Colombia in the war on drugs and the response of Washington to this problem highlight the foreign policy of the U.S. towards other countries in the region regarding drug trafficking and organized crime. This work analyzes cooperation between the U.S. and Colombia regarding the drug war. We conclude the article by assessing the cooperation between the United States and Colombia, taking into account the outcomes but also the nature of cooperation
Reversing Colombia's Security Deficit: Plan Colombia

Brian Fonseca

Lost amongst global headlines dominated by chaos emanating from the Middle East is a U.S. foreign policy success story that helped bring a country back from the abyss right here in the Western Hemisphere. At the dawn of this century, Colombia stood on the brink of state failure. The hemisphere’s longest ‎illegal armed insurgency was in many ways laying siege to Colombia’s large urban areas, and widespread violence was forced into the day-to-day lives of most Colombians.
FARC Strategic Communications & The Colombian Peace Process

Dan Restrepo

Part of the JGI/LACC/ARC/U.S. Southern Command Policy Roundtable Series, this commissioned paper explores the FARC's continued use of more traditional methods of communication, as well as their target audience, and the communication failures of both the FARC and the Government of Colombia in the context of the Columbian Peace Process.
The Russian Media in Latin America

W. Alejandro Sanchez

Part of the JGI/LACC/ARC/U.S. Southern Command Policy Roundtable Series, this commissioned paper examines Russia's messaging in Latin America, and its role in strengthening the growing ties between Russia and Latin America.
Developing Relationships with the Cuban Military, in the Context of a Changing Cuba

Geoff Thale

Part of the JGI/LACC/ARC/U.S. Southern Command Policy Roundtable Series, this commissioned paper discusses how the initial steps toward normalizing relations with Cuba opens both opportunities and challenges for agencies of the U.S. government, including the military, as the nation moves toward more normal relations.
US-Cuba Normalizations: Strategic Impacts For U.S. National Security

Ted Piccone

Part of the JGI/LACC/ARC/U.S. Southern Command Policy Roundtable Series, this commissioned paper discusses the strategic impacts regarding the renewed relationship between the U.S. and Cuba. Piccone discusses the implications for U.S.-Cuban bilateral relations, U.S. relations in the region, and U.S. relations on the global level.
The Politics of Disaster: Tracking the Impact of Hurricane Andrew

David K. Twigg

From earthquakes to tornados, elected officials' responses to natural disasters can leave an indelible mark on their political careers. In the midst of the 1992 primary season, Hurricane Andrew overwhelmed South Florida, requiring local, state, and federal emergency responses. The work of many politicians in the storm's immediate aftermath led to a curious "incumbency advantage" in the general election a few weeks later, raising the question of just how much the disaster provided opportunities to effectively "campaign without campaigning."

David Twigg uses newspaper stories, scholarly articles, and first person interviews to explore the impact of Hurricane Andrew on local and state political incumbents, revealing how elected officials adjusted their strategies and activities in the wake of the disaster. Not only did Andrew give them a legitimate and necessary opportunity to enhance their constituency service and associate themselves with the flow of external assistance, but it also allowed them to achieve significant personal visibility and media coverage while appearing to be non-political or above "normal" politics. This engrossing case study clearly demonstrates why natural disasters often privilege incumbents. Twigg not only sifts through the post-Andrew election results in Florida, but he also points out the possible effects of other past (and future) disaster events on political campaigns in this fascinating and prescient book.
The winds of change? Exploring political effects of Hurricane Andrew

David K Twigg

Before dawn on August 24, 1992, Hurricane Andrew smashed into south Florida, particularly southern Dade County, and soon become the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history. Andrew's impacts quickly overwhelmed local and state emergency response capabilities and eventually required major federal assistance, including regular military units. While the social and economic impacts of Hurricane Andrew are relatively well researched, much less attention has been given to its possible political effects. Focusing on incumbent officeholders at three levels (municipal, state legislative, and statewide) who stood for reelection after Hurricane Andrew, this study seeks to determine whether they experienced any political effects from Andrew. That is, this study explores the possible interaction between the famous “incumbency advantage” and an “extreme event,” in this case a natural disaster. The specific foci were (1) campaigns and campaigning (a research process that included 43 personal interviews), and (2) election results before and after the event. Given well-documented response problems, the working hypothesis was that incumbents experienced largely negative political fallout from the disaster. The null hypothesis was that incumbents saw no net political effects, but the reverse hypothesis was also considered: incumbents benefited politically from the event. In the end, this study found that although the election process was physically disrupted, especially in south Dade County, the disaster largely reinforced the incumbency advantage. More specifically, the aftermath of Hurricane Andrew allowed most incumbent officeholders to (1) enhance constituency service, (2) associate themselves with the flow of external assistance, (3) achieve major personal visibility and media coverage, and yet (4) appear non-political or at least above normal politics. Overall, this combination allowed incumbents to very effectively “campaign without campaigning,” a point borne out by post-Andrew election results.