Research Publications
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Running On Fumes: The Politics of Natural Gas in Bolivia
Marten Brienen
This article examines energy security in Bolivia during the Evo Morales administration, focusing on natural gas. The article begins by analyzing the Gas Wars and the consequences of such events. Despite the anti-imperialistic rhetoric, President Morales’ administration has implemented fairly conservative fiscal policies. This work focuses on the various challenges that Bolivia faces. Brienen argues that Bolivia will likely become a minor energy player in the regional market as opposed to an energy power house. It is also important to note that many social programs have been funded by the profits from natural gas. However, if more natural gas is not found, it could be possible that Bolivia could become “ungovernable.”
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The Obama Doctrine in the Americas
Hanna S. Kassab and Johnathan D. Rosen
This volume examines the foreign policy transition from George W. Bush to Barack H. Obama in relation to the countries of the Americas. In this work, contributors consider the major defining features of their respective policies in dealing with security-related issues. Specifically, they examine whether major differences or continuities truly exist between the foreign policies of Bush and Obama, especially given the perception of American decline. The volume highlights Obama’s foreign policy in the Americas, focusing on issue areas that threaten international security, such as drug trafficking, organized crime, and terrorism. This work provides both theoretical and policy insights for academics and policy analysts interested in foreign affairs.
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The United States and Colombia: From Security Partners to Global Partners in Peace
Dan Restrepo, Frank Mora, Brian Fonseca, and Johnathan Rosen
The article, published by the Center for American Progress, examines Colombia’s journey from near state failure to the brink of historic peace with assistance from the United States and the prospects for a stronger U.S.-Colombia partnership.
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Toward a Modern Security Policy in the Western Hemisphere
Brian Fonseca and G. Alexander Crowther
Contemporary United States security policy towards the Western Hemisphere has yet to achieve the level of strategic sophistication seen during the Cold War. Instead, much of our security orientation in the region has centered on narrow-bore, specific policy interests, namely countering drugs and terrorism, neither of which have improved the overall security of our partners in the hemisphere. In the meantime, physical security in the region continues to deteriorate. Crime and violence are rampant and transnational criminal organizations, drug traffickers, and domestic insurgencies continue to operate with impunity in many countries in the Hemisphere.
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La Guerra contra las Drogas y la Cooperación internacional: el caso de Colombia/ The Drug War and International Cooperation: The Case of Colombia
Jonathan Rosen and Roberto Zepeda
This article examines U.S. foreign policy towards Colombia with respect to drug trafficking. The analysis concentrates not only on the war on drugs in Colombia but also on the interests of the U.S. in this country and in the region as a whole. The position of Colombia in the war on drugs and the response of Washington to this problem highlight the foreign policy of the U.S. towards other countries in the region regarding drug trafficking and organized crime. This work analyzes cooperation between the U.S. and Colombia regarding the drug war. We conclude the article by assessing the cooperation between the United States and Colombia, taking into account the outcomes but also the nature of cooperation
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Reversing Colombia's Security Deficit: Plan Colombia
Brian Fonseca
Lost amongst global headlines dominated by chaos emanating from the Middle East is a U.S. foreign policy success story that helped bring a country back from the abyss right here in the Western Hemisphere. At the dawn of this century, Colombia stood on the brink of state failure. The hemisphere’s longest illegal armed insurgency was in many ways laying siege to Colombia’s large urban areas, and widespread violence was forced into the day-to-day lives of most Colombians.
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FARC Strategic Communications & The Colombian Peace Process
Dan Restrepo
Part of the JGI/LACC/ARC/U.S. Southern Command Policy Roundtable Series, this commissioned paper explores the FARC's continued use of more traditional methods of communication, as well as their target audience, and the communication failures of both the FARC and the Government of Colombia in the context of the Columbian Peace Process.
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The Russian Media in Latin America
W. Alejandro Sanchez
Part of the JGI/LACC/ARC/U.S. Southern Command Policy Roundtable Series, this commissioned paper examines Russia's messaging in Latin America, and its role in strengthening the growing ties between Russia and Latin America.
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Developing Relationships with the Cuban Military, in the Context of a Changing Cuba
Geoff Thale
Part of the JGI/LACC/ARC/U.S. Southern Command Policy Roundtable Series, this commissioned paper discusses how the initial steps toward normalizing relations with Cuba opens both opportunities and challenges for agencies of the U.S. government, including the military, as the nation moves toward more normal relations.
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US-Cuba Normalizations: Strategic Impacts For U.S. National Security
Ted Piccone
Part of the JGI/LACC/ARC/U.S. Southern Command Policy Roundtable Series, this commissioned paper discusses the strategic impacts regarding the renewed relationship between the U.S. and Cuba. Piccone discusses the implications for U.S.-Cuban bilateral relations, U.S. relations in the region, and U.S. relations on the global level.
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The Politics of Disaster: Tracking the Impact of Hurricane Andrew
David K. Twigg
From earthquakes to tornados, elected officials' responses to natural disasters can leave an indelible mark on their political careers. In the midst of the 1992 primary season, Hurricane Andrew overwhelmed South Florida, requiring local, state, and federal emergency responses. The work of many politicians in the storm's immediate aftermath led to a curious "incumbency advantage" in the general election a few weeks later, raising the question of just how much the disaster provided opportunities to effectively "campaign without campaigning."
David Twigg uses newspaper stories, scholarly articles, and first person interviews to explore the impact of Hurricane Andrew on local and state political incumbents, revealing how elected officials adjusted their strategies and activities in the wake of the disaster. Not only did Andrew give them a legitimate and necessary opportunity to enhance their constituency service and associate themselves with the flow of external assistance, but it also allowed them to achieve significant personal visibility and media coverage while appearing to be non-political or above "normal" politics. This engrossing case study clearly demonstrates why natural disasters often privilege incumbents. Twigg not only sifts through the post-Andrew election results in Florida, but he also points out the possible effects of other past (and future) disaster events on political campaigns in this fascinating and prescient book.
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The winds of change? Exploring political effects of Hurricane Andrew
David K Twigg
Before dawn on August 24, 1992, Hurricane Andrew smashed into south Florida, particularly southern Dade County, and soon become the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history. Andrew's impacts quickly overwhelmed local and state emergency response capabilities and eventually required major federal assistance, including regular military units. While the social and economic impacts of Hurricane Andrew are relatively well researched, much less attention has been given to its possible political effects. Focusing on incumbent officeholders at three levels (municipal, state legislative, and statewide) who stood for reelection after Hurricane Andrew, this study seeks to determine whether they experienced any political effects from Andrew. That is, this study explores the possible interaction between the famous “incumbency advantage” and an “extreme event,” in this case a natural disaster. The specific foci were (1) campaigns and campaigning (a research process that included 43 personal interviews), and (2) election results before and after the event. Given well-documented response problems, the working hypothesis was that incumbents experienced largely negative political fallout from the disaster. The null hypothesis was that incumbents saw no net political effects, but the reverse hypothesis was also considered: incumbents benefited politically from the event. In the end, this study found that although the election process was physically disrupted, especially in south Dade County, the disaster largely reinforced the incumbency advantage. More specifically, the aftermath of Hurricane Andrew allowed most incumbent officeholders to (1) enhance constituency service, (2) associate themselves with the flow of external assistance, (3) achieve major personal visibility and media coverage, and yet (4) appear non-political or at least above normal politics. Overall, this combination allowed incumbents to very effectively “campaign without campaigning,” a point borne out by post-Andrew election results.