Winning Hearts, Changing Minds: A Data-Driven Approach to Measure China's Influence in Latin America

Authors

Narayani Sritharan, William & Mary
Jonathan A. Solis, William & Mary

Files

Description

Between 2000 and 2021, China provided US$382.63 billion (constant 2021 US$) in development finance to Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). China’s expanding footprint in LAC through development finance poses strategic challenges to U.S. influence in the region. By coupling financial investments with public diplomacy efforts, Beijing has sought to improve its favorability among recipient countries, often bypassing the governance and transparency requirements typical of Western aid. This approach raises questions about the long-term implications for democratic governance and U.S. strategic interests. Yet, the extent to which this engagement influences recipient countries remains an open question.

This paper argues that while greater China’s development financing will increase the public approval of Beijing’s leadership in LAC, this relationship is moderated by (1) domestic government approval, and (2) media freedom. Greater approval for a citizen-won government will bolster the positive relationship between China’s development funding and perceptions of China’s leadership. At the same time, respondents in more open and freer media environments where the media can criticize the government could diminish this positive effect. An ancillary analysis examines how switching diplomatic ties from Taipei to Beijing influences development financing from China in Panama, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, and Nicaragua.

Publication Date

3-26-2025

Publisher

Florida International University

City

Miami

Disciplines

Political Science

Recommended Citation

Sritharan, Narayani and Solis, Jonathan A., "Winning Hearts, Changing Minds: A Data-Driven Approach to Measure China's Influence in Latin America" (2025). Research Publications. 74.
https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/jgi_research/74