Timescales for Detecting a Significant Acceleration in Sea Level Rise

Authors

Ivan D. Haigh, Ocean and Earth Sciences, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton ; School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering and the UWA Oceans Institute, The University of Western Australia
Thomas Wahl, Research Centre Siegen, University of Siegen ; College of Marine Science, University of South Florida
Eelco J. Rohling, Ocean and Earth Sciences, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton; Research School of Earth Sciences, The Australian National Universit
René M. Price, Department of Earth and Environment and Southeast Environmental Research Center, Florida International UniversityFollow
Charitha B. Pattiaratchi, School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering and the UWA Oceans Institute, The University of Western Australia
Francisco M. Calafat, National Oceanography Centre
Sönke Dangendorf, Research Institute for Water and Environment, University of Siegen

Abstract

There is observational evidence that global sea level is rising and there is concern that the rate of rise will increase, significantly threatening coastal communities. However, considerable debate remains as to whether the rate of sea level rise is currently increasing and, if so, by how much. Here we provide new insights into sea level accelerations by applying the main methods that have been used previously to search for accelerations in historical data, to identify the timings (with uncertainties) at which accelerations might first be recognized in a statistically significant manner (if not apparent already) in sea level records that we have artificially extended to 2100. We find that the most important approach to earliest possible detection of a significant sea level acceleration lies in improved understanding (and subsequent removal) of interannual to multidecadal variability in sea level records.

Comments

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The definitive publisher-authenticated version is available online at http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms4635

This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation through the Florida Coastal Everglades Long-Term Ecological Research program under Cooperative Agreements #DBI-0620409 and #DEB-9910514. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in the material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.

Recommended Citation

Haigh, I.D., T. Wahl, E.J. Rohling, R.M. Price, C.B. Pattiaratchi, F.M. Calafat, S. Dangendorf. 2014. Timescales for detecting a significant acceleration in sea level rise. Nature Communications 5: 3635. DOI: 10.1038/ncomms4635