#SOS Positive and Negative Transitions in Latin America

Authors

Dulce M. SuarezFollow

Document Type

Dissertation

Degree

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Major/Program

International Relations

First Advisor's Name

Felix Martin

First Advisor's Committee Title

Committee chair

Second Advisor's Name

Quentin Felty

Second Advisor's Committee Title

Committee Member

Third Advisor's Name

Markus Thiel

Third Advisor's Committee Title

Committee Member

Fourth Advisor's Name

Eduardo Gamarra

Fourth Advisor's Committee Title

Committee Member

Keywords

comparative politics, international relations

Date of Defense

10-26-2022

Abstract

Through a comparative analysis of Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, the proposal argues that the narrative of international relations ignores transitions that do not lead to democracy. Instead, these transitions are identified as changes, continuity, or succession. The cases demonstrate that political transitions can be negative or positive; some may lead to democracy while others consolidate authoritarianism. The paper identifies four possible variables that may affect why these states do not result in democracy:

1. The population, rather than democracy, favors authoritarianism.
2. Regional interdependency strengthens authoritarianism.
3. The opposition cannot provide an alternative regime type.
4. Regimes mocking democratic practices confuse the population.

The paper begins by evaluating the gap in the literature. In each case, democracy fails; however, a transition occurs. For instance, Cuba should not be studied as one long-time continuation. Instead, investigate what factors have contributed to the failure of democracy. On the other hand, Nicaragua provides data explaining why democracy would select to return to authoritarianism in Latin America. Finally, Venezuela illustrates how an unwanted planned transition can produce a new, more repressive ruler. The transfer of power from Hugo Chávez to Nicolás Maduro provides evidence that changes should be studied with an actor-oriented approach.

Overall, international relations should be required to investigate these transitions and not ignore them as exceptions or rules. The three regimes have been resilient despite various political protests, a weak economy, increasing international pressure, and low public support. The results illustrate the rejection of democracy and the consolidation of authoritarianism.

Identifier

FIDC010859

ORCID

0000-0001-5078-223X

Recommended Citation

Suarez, Dulce M., "#SOS Positive and Negative Transitions in Latin America" (2022). FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations. 5219.
https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/5219