Alternative Democratic Elections, Consultants, and Negative Campaigning in Colombia: The 2016 Plebiscite for Peace

Authors

Karol I. Solis Menco, Political ScienceFollow

Document Type

Dissertation

Degree

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Major/Program

Political Science

First Advisor's Name

Eduardo Gamarra

First Advisor's Committee Title

Committee Chair

Second Advisor's Name

Kyle Mattes

Second Advisor's Committee Title

Committee Member

Third Advisor's Name

Leonardo Ferreira

Third Advisor's Committee Title

Committee Member

Fourth Advisor's Name

Dario Moreno

Fourth Advisor's Committee Title

Committee Member

Keywords

Campaigns, Elections, Colombia, Plebiscite, Referendums, Peace, Political Communication, Negative Campaigns, Political Consulting

Date of Defense

11-10-2022

Abstract

This research seeks to answer the central question, “What are the motivations and considerations behind the use of negative campaigning strategies among campaign consultants?” It focuses on the case of Colombia’s Plebiscite for Peace and the strategies exploited by the Yes and the No campaigns. On October 2, 2016, more than 13 million Colombians turned out to vote at polling stations across the country to express their approval or rejection of a peace agreement signed by the government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, FARC, to put an end to the longest war in the Western Hemisphere. The government was confident the Yes option would prevail, but the agreement was nonetheless rejected by a narrow margin.

In this study, I conducted a set of in-depth interviews to establish perceptions, differences, and similarities among two groups—campaign consultants (those who “craft” the campaigns) and a group of specialists. This second group comprised of politicians and activists, academics, researchers on communication and elections, and journalists. I relied on thematic content analysis as a method to describe, process, and interpret the collected data.

The literature on negative campaigns shows no by-default effect of negativity. It predominantly depends on the context and is election-specific, which necessitates examining specific cases to understand their impact better. I argue that the “frantic loser” hypothesis that refers to the likelihood of political actors going negative when they are behind the polls helps explain the No campaign’s strategy and tactics. However, my research centers on the Yes campaign and how it also resorted to negativity. Prominently, the Yes campaign’s appeal to fear offers evidence of a case in which negative campaigning backfired. I argue the negativity of the No mobilized their niche, whereas the negativity of the Yes demobilized their niche, thus displaying two differential effects within the same election, among other nuances discussed. I also examine the role of misinformation, disinformation, lies, and fake news and provide a discussion about further research needed along these lines.

Identifier

FIDC010873

Recommended Citation

Solis Menco, Karol I., "Alternative Democratic Elections, Consultants, and Negative Campaigning in Colombia: The 2016 Plebiscite for Peace" (2022). FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations. 5205.
https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/5205