On the Definition of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification and a Tropical Cyclone Lightning Climatology as Revealed by the Lightning Imaging Sensor

Authors

Adrian Lopez LagoFollow

Document Type

Dissertation

Degree

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Major/Program

Earth Systems Science

First Advisor's Name

Haiyan Jiang

First Advisor's Committee Title

Committee Chair

Second Advisor's Name

Hugh Willoughby

Second Advisor's Committee Title

Committee Member

Third Advisor's Name

Christopher Landsea

Third Advisor's Committee Title

Committee Member

Fourth Advisor's Name

Robert Black

Fourth Advisor's Committee Title

Committee Member

Fifth Advisor's Name

Xiaosheng Li

Fifth Advisor's Committee Title

Committee Member

Keywords

tropical cyclone; lightning; TRMM; rapid intensification; meteorology; ISS; hurricane

Date of Defense

11-10-2022

Abstract

This dissertation addresses the topic of tropical cyclone intensification and some of the current challenges in forecasting storm intensity change using lightning flashes. Rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones pose a great threat to growing coastal communities because they reduce preparation times. Historically, subjective and theoretically inappropriate methods have been used to obtain such an index. Therefore, the first objective of this dissertation is to develop a 24-hour rapid intensification index based on the statistical theory of Extreme Value Analysis. For that purpose, independent and identically distributed global observations of tropical cyclones between 1990-2020 were extracted from the best-track repository. Then, a kernel-type tail index estimator was applied to the tail of the intensity change observations distribution to estimate the optimal 24-hour rapid intensification threshold. As a result, the new index considers an intensity change of 45 knots in 24 hours as the minimum limit for rapid intensification.

The occurrence of lightning in tropical cyclones has been an active research interest since the second half of the twentieth century. The technological advances in remote sensing capabilities have allowed the continuous and efficient surveillance of this phenomenon around the global ocean basins. As a result, lightning has been identified as a valuable indicator for tropical cyclone intensity changes and convective structure. However, an established consensus on the relationship between lightning and storm intensity changes is yet to be found. Therefore, the second main objective of this dissertation focuses on the connection between lightning and storm intensity by incorporating new optical lightning features detected by the Lightning Imaging Sensor. Also, the relationship between optical lightning features and the radius of maximum wind is investigated. Overall, the results confirm previous findings while highlighting the group lightning feature as a new variable capable of tracking storm intensity changes. The most promising result shows that intensifying storms have a lower group rate than weakening cyclones inside the radius of maximum wind.

Identifier

FIDC010959

Recommended Citation

Lopez Lago, Adrian, "On the Definition of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification and a Tropical Cyclone Lightning Climatology as Revealed by the Lightning Imaging Sensor" (2022). FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations. 5155.
https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/5155