National Material Capability Buildup and the Rank-Magnitude Distribution of Wars

Authors

Matthew Felice, Florida International UniversityFollow

Document Type

Dissertation

Degree

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Major/Program

International Relations

First Advisor's Name

Richard S. Olson

First Advisor's Committee Title

Committee chair

Second Advisor's Name

Bernard S. Gerstman

Second Advisor's Committee Title

Committee member

Third Advisor's Name

Kyle Mattes

Third Advisor's Committee Title

Committee member and co-chair

Fourth Advisor's Name

Frank O. Mora

Fourth Advisor's Committee Title

Committee member

Fifth Advisor's Name

John F. Stack

Fifth Advisor's Committee Title

Committee member

Keywords

war, complexity theory, complex systems, agent-based modeling, power-law distribution, power transition theory, international relations, strategy, energy production, national material capabilities, military capability, balance of power, hierarchy, hierarchical equilibrium, alliances, balancing, bandwagoning, rank-magnitude distribution, nonlinear distributions, logarithmic distribution, exponential distribution, preferential attachment, cumulative advantage, self-organized criticality, Markov chain, long-cycle theory, hegemonic stability theory, hegemony, unipolarity, behavioralism, structure, structural realism, determinism, deterministic, stochastic, stochastic determinism, complex adaptive systems, attractors, reflexivity, recursion, recursive functions, Thucydides, Peloponnesian War, Epidamnus, Epidamnian affair, Corinth, battle of Sybota, cliodynamics, Lewis Fry Richardson, Quincy Wright, Leo Strauss, causation, causal direction, efficient cause, final cause, Aristotle, teleology, randomness

Date of Defense

12-4-2020

Abstract

Are there physical laws, rather than conventions like diplomacy, that determine when war will break out and how severe it will be? On the eve of World War II, L. F. Richardson discovered a curious pattern: Major wars are rare and minor wars are common to such a predictable degree that the size-frequency offset can be plotted with a straight line. Complex-systems theorists have since confirmed those findings and tested them with computer models. Yet none of the research has fully synthesized this law-like observation with the established theoretical approaches in international relations that would apply, such as power transition theory. This dissertation examines the distribution of nations’ latent war-making capabilities in the form of total energy production and compares it with annual war deaths worldwide, using both real-world and computer-generated data, to fill a significant theoretical gap: What do relative energy production levels tell us, at the systemic level, about the potential use of military force? Is the distribution of material capability self-correcting, and does this explain the tradeoff between the frequency and size of wars?

Identifier

FIDC009788

ORCID

0000-0001-8269-6256

Comments

Matthew Felice is an operations research analyst for United States Africa Command. The views presented here are those of the author, and do not reflect those of the U.S. Government or the U.S. Department of Defense.

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 License.

Recommended Citation

Felice, Matthew, "National Material Capability Buildup and the Rank-Magnitude Distribution of Wars" (2020). FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations. 4608.
https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/4608