Predicting the Geographic Origin of Heroin by Multivariate Analysis of Elemental Composition and Strontium Isotope Ratios

Authors

Joshua S. DeBord, Florida International UniversityFollow

Document Type

Dissertation

Degree

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Major/Program

Chemistry

First Advisor's Name

José Almirall

First Advisor's Committee Title

Committee Chair

Second Advisor's Name

Yong Cai

Second Advisor's Committee Title

Committee member

Third Advisor's Name

Anthony DeCaprio

Third Advisor's Committee Title

Committee member

Fourth Advisor's Name

Rosemary Hickey-Vargas

Fourth Advisor's Committee Title

Committee member

Fifth Advisor's Name

Joong-Ho Moon

Fifth Advisor's Committee Title

Committee member

Keywords

Heroin, Provenance, Trace Elements, Strontium, Sample Comparison, Profiling

Date of Defense

6-12-2018

Abstract

The goal of this research was to aid in the fight against the heroin and opioid epidemic by developing new methodology for heroin provenance determination and forensic sample comparison. Over 400 illicit heroin powder samples were analyzed using quadrupole and high-resolution inductively-coupled plasma mass spectrometry (Q-ICP-MS and HR-ICP-MS) in order to measure and identify elemental contaminants useful for associating heroin samples of common origin and differentiating heroin of different geographic origins. Additionally, 198 heroin samples were analyzed by multi-collector ICP-MS (MC-ICP-MS) to measure radiogenic strontium isotope ratios (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr) with high-precision for heroin provenance determination, for the first time.

Supervised discriminant analysis models were constructed to predict heroin origin using elemental composition. The model was able to correctly associate 88% of the samples to their region of origin. When ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr data were combined with Q-ICP-MS elemental data, the correct association of heroin samples improved to ≥90% for all groups with an average of 93% correct classification.

For forensic sample comparisons, quantitative elemental data (11 elements measured) from 120 samples, 30 from each of the four regions, were compared in order to assess the rate of discrimination (5400 total comparisons). Using a match criterion of ±3 standard deviations about the mean, only 14 of the 5400 possible comparison pairs were not discriminated resulting in a discrimination rate of 99.7%. For determining the rate of correct associations, 3 replicates of 24 duplicate samples were prepared and analyzed on separate days. Only 1 of the 24 correct pairs were not associated for a correct association rate of 95.8%. New methods for provenance determination and sample comparison are expected to be incredibly useful to intelligence agencies and law enforcement working to reduce the proliferation of heroin.

Identifier

FIDC006831

Recommended Citation

DeBord, Joshua S., "Predicting the Geographic Origin of Heroin by Multivariate Analysis of Elemental Composition and Strontium Isotope Ratios" (2018). FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations. 3802.
https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/3802