On the accuracy of nonsurvey regional input-output multipliers : An empirical study

Authors

Pierre Kebreau Alexandre, Florida International UniversityFollow

Document Type

Dissertation

Degree

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Major/Program

Economics

First Advisor's Name

Maria Willumsen

First Advisor's Committee Title

Committee Chair

Second Advisor's Name

Ali Cem Karayalcin

Third Advisor's Name

Hassan Arvin-Rad

Date of Defense

4-1-1998

Abstract

Correct specification of the simple location quotients in regionalizing the national direct requirements table is essential to the accuracy of regional input-output multipliers. The purpose of this research is to examine the relative accuracy of these multipliers when earnings, employment, number of establishments, and payroll data specify the simple location quotients.

For each specification type, I derive a column of total output multipliers and a column of total income multipliers. These multipliers are based on the 1987 benchmark input-output accounts of the U.S. economy and 1988-1992 state of Florida data.

Error sign tests, and Standardized Mean Absolute Deviation (SMAD) statistics indicate that the output multiplier estimates overestimate the output multipliers published by the Department of Commerce-Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) for the state of Florida. In contrast, the income multiplier estimates underestimate the BEA's income multipliers. For a given multiplier type, the Spearman-rank correlation analysis shows that the multiplier estimates and the BEA multipliers have statistically different rank ordering of row elements. The above tests also find no significant different differences, both in size and ranking distributions, among the vectors of multiplier estimates.

Identifier

FI13101572

Recommended Citation

Alexandre, Pierre Kebreau, "On the accuracy of nonsurvey regional input-output multipliers : An empirical study" (1998). FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations. 1090.
https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/1090