Predicting the Geographic Origin of Heroin by Multivariate Analysis of Elemental Composition and Strontium Isotope Ratios

Joshua DeBord, Florida International University


The goal of this research was to aid in the fight against the heroin and opioid epidemic by developing new methodology for heroin provenance determination and forensic sample comparison. Over 400 illicit heroin powder samples were analyzed using quadrupole and high-resolution inductively-coupled plasma mass spectrometry (Q-ICP-MS and HR-ICP-MS) in order to measure and identify elemental contaminants useful for associating heroin samples of common origin and differentiating heroin of different geographic origins. Additionally, 198 heroin samples were analyzed by multi-collector ICP-MS (MC-ICP-MS) to measure radiogenic strontium isotope ratios (87Sr/86Sr) with high-precision for heroin provenance determination, for the first time. Supervised discriminant analysis models were constructed to predict heroin origin using elemental composition. The model was able to correctly associate 88% of the samples to their region of origin. When 87Sr/ 86Sr data were combined with Q-ICP-MS elemental data, the correct association of heroin samples improved to ≥90% for all groups with an average of 93% correct classification. For forensic sample comparisons, quantitative elemental data (11 elements measured) from 120 samples, 30 from each of the four regions, were compared in order to assess the rate of discrimination (5400 total comparisons). Using a match criterion of ±3 standard deviations about the mean, only 14 of the 5400 possible comparison pairs were not discriminated resulting in a discrimination rate of 99.7%. For determining the rate of correct associations, 3 replicates of 24 duplicate samples were prepared and analyzed on separate days. Only 1 of the 24 correct pairs were not associated for a correct association rate of 95.8%. New methods for provenance determination and sample comparison are expected to be incredibly useful to intelligence agencies and law enforcement working to reduce the proliferation of heroin.

Subject Area

Analytical chemistry

Recommended Citation

DeBord, Joshua, "Predicting the Geographic Origin of Heroin by Multivariate Analysis of Elemental Composition and Strontium Isotope Ratios" (2018). ProQuest ETD Collection for FIU. AAI13805456.