Document Type

Thesis

Degree

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Department

Civil Engineering

First Advisor's Name

Xia Jin

First Advisor's Committee Title

Committee Chair

Second Advisor's Name

Mohammed Hadi

Second Advisor's Committee Title

Committee Member

Third Advisor's Name

Seung Jae Lee

Third Advisor's Committee Title

Committee Member

Fourth Advisor's Name

Wensong Wu

Fourth Advisor's Committee Title

Committee Member

Fifth Advisor's Name

Yan Xiao

Fifth Advisor's Committee Title

Committee Member

Keywords

Automated Vehicle, Travel Demand Modeling, Transportation Planning, Travel Behavior, Modeling, Multinomial Logit Model, Market Penetration

Date of Defense

11-1-2016

Abstract

Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) are computer equipped vehicles that can operate without human driver’s active control using information provided by their sensors about the surrounding environment. Self-driving vehicles may have seemed to be a distant dream several years ago, but manufactures’ prototypes showed that AVs are becoming real now. Several car manufactures (i.e. Benz, Audi, etc.) and information technology firms (i.e. Google) have either showcased their fully AVs or announced their robot cars to be released in a few years. AVs hold the promise to transform the ways we live and travel. Although several studies have been conducted on the impacts of AVs, much remains to be explored regarding the various ways in which AVs could reshape our lifestyle.

This dissertation addresses the knowledge gap in understanding the potential implications of AV technologies on travel behavior and system modeling. A comprehensive review of literature regarding AV adoption, potential impacts and system modeling was provided. Bass diffusion models were developed to investigate the market penetration process of AVs based on experience learned from past technologies. A stated preference survey was conducted to gather information from university population on the perceptions and attitudes toward AV technologies. The data collected from the Florida International University (FIU) was used to develop econometric models exploring the willingness to pay and relocation choices of travelers in light of the new technologies. In addition, the latest version of the Southeast Planning Regional Model (SERPM) 7.0, an Activity-Based Model (ABM), was employed to examine the potential impacts of AVs on the transportation network. Three scenarios were developed for short-term (2035), mid-term (2045) and long-term (2055) conditions.

This dissertation provides a systematic approach to understand the potential implications of AV technologies on travel behavior and system modeling. The results of the survey data analysis and the scenario analysis also provide important inputs to guide planning and policy analysis on the impacts of AV technologies.

Identifier

FIDC001241

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