Countering violent extremism: A mathematical model

The term radicalization refers to the process of developing extremist religious political or social beliefs and ideologies. Radicalization becomes a threat to national security when it leads to violence. Prevention and de-radicalization initiatives are part of a set of strategies used to combat violent extremism, which taken together are known as Countering Violent Extremism (CVE). Prevention programs aim to stop the radicalization process before it starts. De-radicalization programs attempt to reform convicted extremists with the ultimate goal of social reintegration. We describe prevention and de-radicalization programs mathematically using a compartmental model. The prevention initiatives are modeled by including a vaccination compartment, while the de-radicalization process is modeled by including a treatment compartment. The model exhibits a threshold dynamics characterized by the basic reproduction number R0. When R0 < 1 the system has a unique equilibrium that is asymptotically stable. When R0 > 1 the system has another equilibrium called “endemic equilibrium”, which is globally asymptotically stable. These results are established by using Lyapunov functions and LaSalle’s invariance principle. Analyzing the basic reproduction number we determine that a combination of prevention and de-radicalization seems to provide the most effective intervention. We perform numerical simulations to confirm our theoretical results. These simulation also show that de-radicalization seems to be more effective to counter radicalization than prevention for our choice of parameters. For other choices of parameters the situation is reversed.