Date of Publication

2021 12:00 AM

Security Theme

Migration

Keywords

demography; forecasting; international migration; gross migration; net migration; labor market

Description

International migration is a global phenomenon with a current estimate of 281 million people globally being counted as migrants, defined as living outside one’s country of origin, with an increasing tendency [1]. Reasons for migration are diverse, and classically defined by Lee [2] into the two categories of push and pull factors, with the first being factors repelling individuals from their region of origin, such as violent conflicts, poor nutritional and health standards, lack of work, or restrictions to freedom of speech. Pull factors instead are those attracting individuals to a specific region, such as better opportunities in employment or education, or better climatic circumstances. Issues arising from international migration differ very much between countries witnessing mostly negative net migration (origin countries) in comparison to those with regular positive net migration (target countries (the notions actually address the origin and the target country associated with one specific migration. We, however, borrow them here to characterize groups of countries)). The first case is low- to middle-income regions, i.e., large parts of Latin America, Africa, Asia, and Eastern Europe. The latter case is high-income regions, i.e., Western Europe, North America, Oceania, or Western Asia [1]. Whereas migration outflows from origin countries are often characterized by the loss of young and qualified individuals (brain drain), which then hampers the development of these countries [3], high inflows to the target countries are sometimes seen as problematic if the migrants originate from less developed and less egalitarian countries, in which case the migrants are perceived as a threat to security or the social systems of the target country by critics [4]. On the backhand side, migration can be seen as a chance. Outflows from origin countries might release tensions on the labor markets there if there is an oversupply of the labor force, which may lead to higher burdens on social systems. In the target countries, inflows by young migrants can be interpreted as a potential stabilizer for the age structure of the population and supply a potential labor force [4]. These societies, in most cases, are affected by a demographic transition, marked by low fertility and decreasing mortality rates, which then leads to aging and depopulation if not averted by immigration [5].

Comments

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited

Share

 
COinS
 
Jan 1st, 12:00 AM

Migration Forecasting—Significance and Approaches

International migration is a global phenomenon with a current estimate of 281 million people globally being counted as migrants, defined as living outside one’s country of origin, with an increasing tendency [1]. Reasons for migration are diverse, and classically defined by Lee [2] into the two categories of push and pull factors, with the first being factors repelling individuals from their region of origin, such as violent conflicts, poor nutritional and health standards, lack of work, or restrictions to freedom of speech. Pull factors instead are those attracting individuals to a specific region, such as better opportunities in employment or education, or better climatic circumstances. Issues arising from international migration differ very much between countries witnessing mostly negative net migration (origin countries) in comparison to those with regular positive net migration (target countries (the notions actually address the origin and the target country associated with one specific migration. We, however, borrow them here to characterize groups of countries)). The first case is low- to middle-income regions, i.e., large parts of Latin America, Africa, Asia, and Eastern Europe. The latter case is high-income regions, i.e., Western Europe, North America, Oceania, or Western Asia [1]. Whereas migration outflows from origin countries are often characterized by the loss of young and qualified individuals (brain drain), which then hampers the development of these countries [3], high inflows to the target countries are sometimes seen as problematic if the migrants originate from less developed and less egalitarian countries, in which case the migrants are perceived as a threat to security or the social systems of the target country by critics [4]. On the backhand side, migration can be seen as a chance. Outflows from origin countries might release tensions on the labor markets there if there is an oversupply of the labor force, which may lead to higher burdens on social systems. In the target countries, inflows by young migrants can be interpreted as a potential stabilizer for the age structure of the population and supply a potential labor force [4]. These societies, in most cases, are affected by a demographic transition, marked by low fertility and decreasing mortality rates, which then leads to aging and depopulation if not averted by immigration [5].

 
 

To view the content in your browser, please download Adobe Reader or, alternately,
you may Download the file to your hard drive.

NOTE: The latest versions of Adobe Reader do not support viewing PDF files within Firefox on Mac OS and if you are using a modern (Intel) Mac, there is no official plugin for viewing PDF files within the browser window.