Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Expected Loss Costs in Hurricane Models

Authors

Antonio R. Hudson, Florida International UniversityFollow

Document Type

Thesis

Degree

Master of Science (MS)

Major/Program

Statistics

First Advisor's Name

Sneh Gulati

First Advisor's Committee Title

Co-Committee Chair

Second Advisor's Name

B. M. Golam Kibria

Second Advisor's Committee Title

Co-Committee Chair

Third Advisor's Name

Shahid S. Hamid

Keywords

sensitivity, uncertainty, statistics, R, loss costs, hurricane models

Date of Defense

6-18-2012

Abstract

The Public Hurricane Model developed at FIU by a team of scientists has to be certified by the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology. The commission ensures that all hurricane loss models meet certain standards, as models are used extensively by regulators and insurance firms to produce inputs used in the homeowner insurance rate making process. The focus of this thesis is to conduct sensitivity and uncertainty analysis through the calculation of standardized regression coefficients and expected percentage reductions in expected loss costs in order to meet the commission standards.

The commission approved the model after very extensive and rigorous review by a panel of experts. The results generated for sensitivity and uncertainty, form S-6, showed the importance of the Holland B parameter regardless of hurricane category, with the radius of maximum winds increasing in importance for stronger hurricanes.

Identifier

FI12080603

Recommended Citation

Hudson, Antonio R., "Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Expected Loss Costs in Hurricane Models" (2012). FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations. 681.
https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/681