Document Type

Dissertation

Degree

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Major/Program

Political Science

First Advisor's Name

Eduardo A. Gamarra

First Advisor's Committee Title

Committee chair

Second Advisor's Name

Dario V. Moreno

Second Advisor's Committee Title

Committee member

Third Advisor's Name

Astrid Arraras

Third Advisor's Committee Title

Committee member

Fourth Advisor's Name

Victor Uribe Uran

Fourth Advisor's Committee Title

Committee member

Keywords

Social networks, Twitter, Elections, Presidential Campaigns, Colombia, El Salvador

Date of Defense

3-31-2023

Abstract

Based on two case studies, this research aims to respond to one central question: to what extent do candidates who use Twitter as a tool for political communication achieve the reactions they expect from the electorate, and do these reactions materialize into votes? In other words, does Twitter allow a candidate to elicit desirable reactions that subsequently translate into votes?

The methodology used in this study is a mixed-method analysis that aims to enhance and reinforce our understanding of statistical findings through a qualitative approach using triangulation. Among other sources, the qualitative methodology employs process tracing, interviews, analysis of documents, and analysis of media reports. The quantitative component includes categorizing and analyzing all the tweets posted on Twitter by the selected presidential candidates during the two months before election day and examining the reactions to these messages, such as likes, retweets, or replies.

I argue that political campaigns on Twitter are generally characterized by the self-promotion of candidates and attacks against their political rivals. Though there are many angles from which to study this question, according to the data analyzed for this research in the cases of Colombia (2022) and El Salvador (2019), during the last two months of campaigning, candidates who deployed an electoral strategy on Twitter characterized by 1) self-reference and comparison with their contenders, while 2) moving away from making concrete proposals on governance issues, won the presidency.

Although Twitter offers possibilities that go far beyond mere propaganda and negative campaigning, the most effective Tweets are precisely those that fall into one of these two categories. The results of this study show that the messages that get the most reactions, as expressed in likes, retweets, and replies, are those that are classified in the above subcategories. Likewise, candidates who received the highest number of reactions to their messages won their presidential races.

Identifier

FIDC011066

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