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Abstract

What is Mexico’s future in the face of global hierarchical shifts. Mexico has existed in a dependent relationship with the United States since the beginning of the 20th century. Mexico’s dependency evolved in tandem with the U.S.’ rise to power. That U.S. dominance is being challenged in the 21st century, thus offering Mexico a chance for a different development path. Drawing on elements from world-systems, dependency, and political economy theories, I consider three possible trajectories: Mexico will develop more autonomously; it will become dependent on China; or it will experience stagnation. Using international and governmental data sets, reports from U.S. and Mexican governmental agencies and producer associations, along with journals and newspapers, I suggest that stagnation is the most probable outcome.

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