Date of this Version

3-25-2013

Document Type

Article

Abstract

Background Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is increasingly becoming a major public health problem worldwide. Estimating the future burden of diabetes is instrumental to guide the public health response to the epidemic. This study aims to project the prevalence of T2DM among adults in Syria over the period 2003?2022 by applying a modelling approach to the country?s own data. Methods Future prevalence of T2DM in Syria was estimated among adults aged 25æyears and older for the period 2003?2022 using the IMPACT Diabetes Model (a discrete-state Markov model). Results According to our model, the prevalence of T2DM in Syria is projected to double in the period between 2003 and 2022 (from 10% to 21%). The projected increase in T2DM prevalence is higher in men (148%) than in women (93%). The increase in prevalence of T2DM is expected to be most marked in people younger than 55æyears especially the 25?34æyears age group. Conclusions The future projections of T2DM in Syria put it amongst countries with the highest levels of T2DM worldwide. It is estimated that by 2022 approximately a fifth of the Syrian population aged 25æyears and older will have T2DM.

Originally Published In

BMC Public Health

PMID

23705638

DOI

10.1186/1471-2458-13-507

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