Document Type
Thesis
Degree
Master of Science (MS)
Department
Statistics
Advisor's Name
Sneh Gulati
Advisor's Title
Co-Committee Chair
Advisor's Name
B. M. Golam Kibria
Advisor's Title
Co-Committee Chair
Advisor's Name
Shahid S. Hamid
Keywords
sensitivity, uncertainty, statistics, R, loss costs, hurricane models
Date of Defense
6-18-2012
Abstract
The Public Hurricane Model developed at FIU by a team of scientists has to be certified by the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology. The commission ensures that all hurricane loss models meet certain standards, as models are used extensively by regulators and insurance firms to produce inputs used in the homeowner insurance rate making process. The focus of this thesis is to conduct sensitivity and uncertainty analysis through the calculation of standardized regression coefficients and expected percentage reductions in expected loss costs in order to meet the commission standards.
The commission approved the model after very extensive and rigorous review by a panel of experts. The results generated for sensitivity and uncertainty, form S-6, showed the importance of the Holland B parameter regardless of hurricane category, with the radius of maximum winds increasing in importance for stronger hurricanes.
Recommended Citation
Hudson, Antonio R., "Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Expected Loss Costs in Hurricane Models" (2012). FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations. Paper 681.
http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/681